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2022-08-10
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Yongan Futures: Weekly Review of energy and chemical industry 0114

I. important information 1 New York, January 11 - crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Futures Exchange (NYMEX) closed lower on Friday, falling in six of the past seven trading days. Investors are uneasy about energy demand because the economic outlook highlights the risk of recession Data in the middle of the week showed that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, but the impact was offset by an increase in oil inventories, which failed to drive up oil prices Clg8) settlement price of NYMEX February crude oil futures fell $1.02, or 1 Randic expanded its product range 09%, at $92.69 per barrel, between 92 65. This week, oil prices fell by $5.01, or 5.12% "The market is close to short-term oversold, and may find some support, but as it begins to enter the period of seasonal increase in crude oil inventories, I expect it to weaken further. Cobalt, nickel and other rare metals are recovered as well, especially since inventories and oil prices have resumed the opposite trend." A. Eric wittenauer, an analyst at g. Edwards, said Lcog8) closed down $1.15, or 1.25 percent, at $91.07, after trading at $90 24 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday that the U.S. economic outlook has deteriorated and the Federal Reserve is ready to take active action to support economic growth February heating oil futures ( Rbg8 ( Trading between 3753 2 Singapore, January 11 - Asian fuel oil prices recorded a decline of $10 on Friday for the fourth consecutive day, hitting a one month low for the second consecutive day. The cracking spread and spread discount further deepened, as buying interest did not improve 380cst fuel oil market continued to fall. PetroChina sold five shipments of 100000 tons at a deep discount, putting pressure on the market, while shell, which had been supporting the market for the first time in nearly six trading days, failed to buy shipments "The downward spiral continues, but today it seems to be more driven by crude oil prices, as the cracking spread is roughly stable. It is hoped that the decline in prices can revive China's buying interest," an Asian trader said 180 CST fuel oil prices fell $7.85 to $475.55 per ton, hitting a one month low for the second consecutive day The price difference fell by $0.30 from yesterday to $1.10 No deal was reached The cracking price difference of this oil product rose slightly by US $0.15 to negative US $13.85 per barrel 380cst marine fuel oil fell $9.60 to $464.05 per ton; The spread fell $1.80 to $2.85 a barrel Five deals have been made PetroChina sold three batches of 20000 ton cargoes with a shipping date of January to Vitol, Glencore and Xinglong, respectively, at a discount of $5.00 per ton compared with the spot quotation PetroChina sold two additional shipments to Xinglong, and the first batch was shipped on January 4, with a discount of $3.00 compared with the average quotation in February, equivalent to a discount of $2.11 compared with the spot quotation; The second batch will be shipped on February, with a discount of US $2.00 compared with the spot quotation 3. The rubber market in Tokyo fluctuates broadly as a whole, and the short-term trend is not very clear: due to the unclear future trading direction of long funds and the lack of their own market materials, short-term speculation has an impact on the rubber market. 3. Indication accuracy: ± 1% is large, and the one-day price change even reaches as much as 14 yen; Technically, after successfully filling the gap between 305.0 yen (the low value on January 7) and 307.6 yen (the high value on January 4), it lacked the momentum to continue to rise, basically fluctuating around 300 yen. From the macro perspective of international finance, due to the downturn of the global stock market and the possibility of the U.S. economic recession, commodity futures have become the investment target of many investors, and it is expected that the bull market trend of commodities will continue. Therefore, the strengthening trend of natural rubber will not change in the medium and long term. In the short term, due to the continuous rise, there may be a decline, but on the premise that the long fund maintains the long trading direction, a sharp decline is not easy to occur. Considering that the production area will usher in a production reduction period soon, it is more likely that the rubber market will rise again after the fall adjustment. 4. Medium fiber: PTA spot price 72, shut down immediately for inspection of 50 yuan/ton

II. Future concerns: 1 Crude oil price 2 Fuel oil spot premium 3 Position of Japanese rubber 4 PTA downstream consumption status

III. Market Research and judgment fuel oil: the medium and long-term trend of crude oil in the future will depend on the strategy of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve, with strong shocks. Shanghai Jiao: the probability of Shanghai Jiao continuing to fluctuate and rise is high, but the space is limited. PTA: PTA is in a bear market, but there is the possibility of bottoming

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